Senate Gridlock – the Filibuster Factor 2012

Download PDF Report >>> Filibuster Trends 2012

SUMMARY

For decades, filibusters served Congress well as a method for the minority to put some checks on the majority. But the nation’s founders never envisioned this turn of events. The constitution requires the VP to break Senate vote ties clearly indicating that 51 % is a majority. Republicans recent reliance on the filibuster has effectively raised the votes needed to pass to 60%, a super majority. Using the filibuster to wrestle power back is not a recipe to reduce people’s frustration with gridlock.

ANALYSIS

This is a mid 2012 post updating earlier posts that record actual data through summer 2012. Americans of all political persuasions are more and more frustrated with the gridlock that has almost brought Washington to a standstill. This analysis focuses only on the Senate and the filibuster.

The Senate posts filibuster data back to 1919. Records track three items.

  • First, cloture motions to end debate which occur when a minority of senators threaten or actually filibuster. That sometimes ends the filibuster.
  • Second, once a motion has passed, there is a cloture vote.
  • Third is recording the cloture vote. If the vote succeeds, cloture is invoked and the filibuster is overridden.

When a filibuster is overridden, then the Senate still has to vote on the actual bill. But then, only a simple majority or 51% is required for the legislation to pass.

cloture motions

Republicans’ use of filibuster has reached unprecedented levels with no signs of abating. But it was not always so. In the graph above, only 56 cloture motions were filed over 52 years from 1919 through 1970. At just over one per year, filibusters were rarely used. 420 cloture motions were filed over the next 22 years, from 1971 to 1992, a sharp increase to 19 per year.

1993-1994 saw Republicans’ “Contract with America” that escalated partisanship to higher levels. From 1993-2006, motions nearly doubled to 36 per year. Cloture motions took an even more dramatic upturn in 2007 when Republicans lost control of the Senate. Cloture motions again jumped sharply through mid 2012 to average nearly 70 per year. Clearly, filibuster has become the weapon of choice for Senate Republicans.

Republicans accuse Democrats of filibustering, and there is some truth to that. But as the graphs show, Republicans (red bars) initiated each spike and have now taken filibustering to an absurd new level. Virtually every major piece of legislation now runs the filibuster gamut. Motions to end filibusters is only the first part. The senate then needs to vote and this occurs about 75% of the time. Of those times when no vote is taken, either a compromise is reached or the bill is withdrawn.  The graph below shows the trend in cloture votes taken.

cloture votes

Americans hold Congress in low esteem because of gridlock. Americans want achievement, but that requires both parties to compromise. Neither party is blameless but neither is the blame 50/50. The frequency of filibuster and threats of it does not reflect well on Republicans’ acting in good faith.

Credit Republicans with discipline. They threaten any of their own party who don’t tow the party line and vote out of office those who compromise, not in the general election but in the Republican primaries. While that increases the effect of their filibuster threats, it is essentially a negative strategy. They’re short on their own ideas. They’re adamant about their own ideas while they just say “NO” to all Democratic ideas.

cloture invoked

As the above graph shows, those filibustering do not always get their way. Since 1960, filibusters have been overridden less than 45% of the time. However, in the past 5 ½ years with Republicans filibustering, overriding those filibusters has succeeded almost 60% of the time.

For decades, filibusters served Congress well as a method for the minority to put some checks on the majority. But the nation’s founders never envisioned this turn of events. The constitution requires the VP to break Senate vote ties clearly indicating that 51 % is a majority. Republicans lost majority through the ballot. Their reliance on filibuster has effectively raised the votes needed to pass to 60%, a super majority. It’s ironic that Republicans should blame Senate Democrats for not passing legislation, even though Democrats are in a majority. Using the filibuster to wrestle power back is not a recipe to reduce people’s frustration with gridlock.

Download PDF Report >>> Filibuster Trends 2012

Source Document shown below: http://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/cloture_motions/clotureCounts.htm

filibuster history

Protected: Point

This content is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

Response to Essential Health Benefits Bulletin

Download PDF Report >>> Response to Essential Health Benefits Bulletin

SUMMARY

Health and Human Services (HHS) Bulletin sets guidelines for defining Essential Health Benefits (EHB). It ingeniously allows each State to have a say in its own EHB definition, yet provides a method to bring closure to the process should any State not reach an agreement. It also allows States to add benefits, but at their own expense. With federally providing premium assistance to lower income enrollees, it is important that only minimum State EHB premiums be supported.

The bulletin will likely require every State to add or enhance some services that are not now offered to small groups and individuals. This may lead to a premium increase for small groups and individuals not eligible for premium assistance.  Until actuarial efforts identify these costs, this remains an unanswered issue.  Everyone is concerned about higher costs, but Insurers have added concerns about adverse selection. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) mitigates this concern by reinsurance and risk adjustment provisions in the act. Continue reading

Income Disparity and Sources of Income

Download PDF Report >>> Income Distribution

SUMMARY

Regardless of how one views the Occupy Wall Street (OWS) movement and “We are the 99 percent”, it has succeeded in raising awareness about wealth distribution. Also in October, 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) published an analysis of household incomes addressing that subject.

 CBO first grouped households by quintiles (1/5 in each) and clearly the top fifth have done far better than the bottom fifth. CBO then divided the top 20% (fifth) into 10%, 5%, 4%, and the highest 1% of households. The income disparity was even more striking with the highest 1% far greater than the others. 

This analysis further drills down within this top 1% and finds income disparity wider yet, and vastly greater than all other group comparisons. Pre-tax income for the top 1/100 of 1%, (or 12,000 households) totaled some $450 billion, greater than the combined pre-tax income of the 24 million lowest income households. To rephrase, income of just one of these richest households is more than 2,000 lowest income households. Continue reading

Worsening Inequality of Wealth and Incomes

SUMMARY

In October 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released an analysis at the request of the Senate Committee on Finance. The analysis documents changes in household income distribution from 1979 to 2007. That analysis titled “Trends in the Distribution of Household Income notes that the share of average after-tax income for the top 20% gained, while the lower 80% declined seen in Summary Figure 2.

Further, within the top 20%, the share of after-tax income of the top 1% grew from less than 18% to over 30% of the top 20% income bracket. While actual incomes for all quintiles increased, only the share of total after-tax income of the top 1% increased. The 81-99% remained essentially flat while the lower 80% of all households declined over 28 years.   Continue reading

Senate Gridlock – the Filibuster Factor – Update

This Analysis has been replaced with a new version: Senate Filibusters Reveal Deliberate Obstruction

 

Government Medical Spend Forecasts

Download PDF Report >>> Government Medical Spend Forecasts

Open Google Motion Chart >>> Total Public Medical Spend

Open Google Motion Chart >>> Medicare Spend

SUMMARY

There is a close relationship between the current concerns over government debt and prior years’ controversies over the Affordable Care Act (ACA) or health reform.  The link between them is that Medicare costs will rise significantly above current levels. That will put pressure on entitlement spending that will be nearly impossible to offset with other spending cuts.  Medicare itself will need significant reform.

However, the principal factor behind the enormous cost increases is the huge increase in the senior population.  The population for those 0 to 54 years is expected to rise just 16% between 2010 and 2050.  The population of those 55 and over is expected to grow nearly 70% over that same period and the older the age, the greater the increase.  This major shift in the aging population is the main cause of higher Medicare costs. Higher per-capita costs just add to the problem. Continue reading